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ONLINE IPM WEATHER DATA and DEGREE-DAYS
CURRENT CONDITIONS
6/24/98
Previous updates available for June 15, June 9, June 1 and May 26 update
Continuing to track "normal" temperatures in W. Oregon
In W. Oregon, since about May 31, temperatures have been almost exactly normal, ending the cool wet weather during the last 3 weeks of May. We are now getting "back on track" with pest developments. In Central Oregon (Madras), it has not "caught up" with historical average degree-day accumulations. In fact, using a 41F lower threshold, all of far east and Southeast Oregon are "behind" by 30-200+ degree-days, making this a very cool year so far in those regions.
In the Willamette valley, so far, cabbage loopers are being trapped in moderately high numbers, but black cutworm numbers are low. Counts of bertha armyworm have been near zero and corn earworm has been zero so far. Send in any reports from other regions and crops of pest developments to me at coopl@bcc.orst.edu. Check the Oregon Climate Service or The Weather Channel for the latest forecasts.
A new feature of this web site is the "file-upload" version of the degree-day model - now you may use your OWN weather data files to run the crop and pest models.
The updated graph shows that in Forest Grove (as in most of W. Oregon), the degree-day accumulations have been normal for the past 24 days, and have nearly caught up with 1997 (which had a cool late June/early July). In Madras (Central Oregon), temperatures have also been near normal, but are lower than both 1997 and the historical normals.
Individual Pest Model Predictions (selected)
note: forecasts are made using actual 5-day forecasts followed by historical normals
Western cherry fruit fly - BIOFIX March 1
**** revised 6-24-98 ****
Willamette Valley - First emergence was predicted May 31, first eggs on fruit was predicted June 7, first hatch was predicted June 12, peak egglaying was predicted June 21, and 100% adult emergence predicted on June 27.
The Dalles (warmest locations) - First emergence was predicted May 6, first eggs on fruit May 13, first hatch May 19, peak egglaying May 28, 100% emergence June 1, and first pupation predicted on June 5
Hood River (lower valley) - First emergence was predicted on May 28, first eggs June 4, and first hatch June 9, peak egglaying June 17, and 100% adult emergence June 21.
Codling moth
**** revised 6-24-98 ****
Medford - BIOFIX Apr 21; 3% egg hatch was predicted June 1; 20% egg hatch June 9; 50% egg hatch June 19, 75% egg hatch June 28, and 95% egg hatch predicted July 7
Corvallis/Eugene - BIOFIX Apr 30; 3% egg hatch was predicted June 9; 20% egg hatch June 21, 50% egg hatch predicted on July 2, and 75% egg hatch predicted July 11
Hood River (lower valley) - BIOFIX Apr 24; 3% egg hatch predicted on May 31; 20% egg hatch June 9, 50% egg hatch June 20, 75% egg hatch June 30, and 95% egg hatch predicted July 13
Obliquebanded leafroller
note: this is the Hazelnut version of the model -
has not tested in pears and does not require a BIOFIX (default of March 1 always used)
**** revised 6-24-98 ****
McMinnville - 5% moth catch in pheromone traps was predicted June 7, first egglaying June 14, peak egg laying July 1, and first egg hatch predicted July 16
Hood River - 5% moth catch in pheromone traps was predicted June 7, first egglaying June 13, 50% catch in pheromone traps June 23, and peak egg laying and 80% catch in pheromone traps June 30, and first egg hatch predicted July 14
Corvallis - 5% moth catch in pheromone traps was predicted June 12, first egglaying June 20, peak egg laying and 80% catch in pheromone traps predicted July 8, and first egg hatch predicted July 21
Orange tortrix
**** revised 6-24-98 ****
Forest Grove - Peak egglaying predicted May 8, peak egg hatch predicted May 30, peak density of large larvae predicted July 5
McMinnville - Peak egglaying predicted May 11, peak egg hatch predicted June 1, and peak density of large larvae predicted July 10
Corvallis - Peak egglaying predicted May 17, peak egg hatch predicted June 6, peak density of large larvae predicted July 16
Strawberry root weevil
**** revised 6-24-98 ****
Corvallis - Currently adults emerging, peak adult emergence predicted June 19, peak egglaying predicted July 7
Madras - Currently adults emerging, peak adult emergence predicted June 28, peak egglaying predicted July 13
European pine shoot moth
**** revised 6-24-98 ****
McMinnville - First moth catch in pheromone traps was predicted May 29, 50% catch predicted June 14, 75% catch June 23, and 90% moth catch predicted June 29
Corvallis - First moth catch in pheromone traps was predicted May 30, 50% catch June 16, 75% catch June 26, and 90% moth catch predicted July 1
San Jose scale
**** revised 6-24-98 ****
**** more accurate BIOFIX dates not available - currently using a default of March 15 ****
Corvallis - First crawlers are normally expected the first week in June, this year predicted on June 15, average time of crawler treatment predicted July 8, and first second stage nymphs predicted July 14
Disclaimer: No claims are made as to the correctness or appropriateness of this information for your particular needs. No specific pest control products are intended for
endorsement or use. This responsibility rests solely with the people who interpret and implement information from this and other sources. Use all predictive information
with caution - errors occur, and predictive models do not replace the need for proper monitoring in the field. If you observe conditions that differ substantially from
model predictions, please contact us to determine if the model inputs were incorrect, if the model functioning or weather data are in error, or if the model is inappropriate
for your conditions.
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This project funded in part by a grant from the USDA-Western Regional IPM program.
On-line since April 5, 1996
Last updated June 24, 1998
Contact Len Coop at coopl@bcc.orst.edu if you
have any questions about this information.
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